The Impact of the Youth Vote
A Q&A with Richard Fox, Ph.D.

1. Why do you think college educated youth 18-24 support Obama over Clinton? What does the Clinton Campaign need to do to win that category?

Young voters are the most idealistic voting block and can get very excited about candidates who are different or represent big change. Obama really fits that bill. He is young, African-American and a dynamic speaker. The Clintons, on the otherhand, are old news. The 18-24 voting block has been hearing and seeing Hillary Clinton since they were small children so it is harder to get excited about her. Even though she has the newness of being the first serious woman candidate, it does not entirely overcome the familiarity young voters have with her.
In 2004, Howard Dean was the candidate exciting young voters. He was a doctor from a small state who got young citizens excited, this year it is Obama.
There probably isn't much Hillary can do to win the majority of young voters in the Democratic primary, but if she wins the nomination, she will come to represent the candidate of change and young voters will support her.

2. Why do you think youth 18-24 that are not attending college support Giuliani more so than those in college?

If you don't know that much about Rudy Giuliani he is a very appealing candidate. He was the heroic face of the 9/11 disaster and become a national symbol for courage under adversity. However, the more one examines his record, one begins to see a lot of inconsistencies or what some would regard as personal failings. I would guess that in the case of Giuliani, the more you know him, the less you like him. College students in the 18-24 category are more likely to follow the news and be informed about candidates, and that might be hurting Giuliani among this group.

3. Voter turnout among 18-24 year olds has increased from 36 percent in 2000 to 47 percent in 2004. Why has this increase occurred? What impact will it have on the upcoming primaries? General election?

In 2004 voter turnout among all voting blocks increased pretty substantially so it is too early to see if this is really a trend. The 2004 election had the highest turnout for a presidential election since the 1960s. Clearly, though, young voters are a coveted block among Democrats because the group is trending toward the Democrats. It could have a major impact in the primaries, because if turnout is low, the energized and exicited young voters could be decisive.

4. Do you feel that this increase has any relation to the job that George W. Bush is doing as President, noting that 59 percent of young people believe the country is on the “wrong track”?

Young people are turning away from the Republican Party. For much of the 1980s and 1990s, young voters were pretty evenly split. Clearly the Bush presidency has had an effect. What is causing the disillusionment? The answer is not entirely clear, though many think the War in Iraq is to blame. The 2008 election will be a real barometer for how young voters and the next generation are feeling.