California isn't super in Tuesday's primary fight
Gannet News Service
February 27, 2004
LOS ALTOS, Calif. -- California, so big and trendsetting on so many things, could again find itself the leader of the Ignored Majority in the presidential campaign of 2004.
Super Tuesday's Democratic primary showdown between Sens. John Kerry and John Edwards here and in nine other states offers the biggest one-day prize, by far, of the Democratic election fight.
But some Californians are again lamenting the relative lack of attention being paid to their state, the biggest delegate plum, with 370 of the 1,151 up for grabs on Super Tuesday. Worse, some think the post-primary neglect could repeat what happened in the 1996 and 2000 presidential campaigns when Republicans essentially gave up here by Labor Day, concentrating resources and campaign trips elsewhere.
California has 55 electoral voters -- more than a fifth of the 270 necessary to win the presidency. But at decision time 2000, the biggest electoral prize of all got far less political pampering than states like Minnesota, with 10 votes, or even West Virginia, with five.
When it comes to picking presidents, California has become a giant dichotomy. Its cultural and media influence over the rest of the country is well known, but significant political movements have spun out of here for decades. The tax revolts of the 1970s spread to other states, and the immigration battles of the 1990s presaged today's fights in Congress and elsewhere. The current fight over same-sex marriage began with a Massachusetts Supreme Court decision but has been pushed into the national spotlight by San Francisco's granting of marriage licenses to same-sex couples.
California's gubernatorial races often are watched nationally, as the recall of Democrat Gray Davis and the election of Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger last fall demonstrated. But even with all this, California has not had even a modestly competitive presidential race since 1992, and a Republican has not won California since President Bush's father beat former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis here in 1988.
Some Democrats think the only thing that may make the state more competitive in 2004 is Schwarzenegger, whose campaign skills have impressed even his political foes.
"A year ago, I would have said no," said Kam Kuwata, a veteran Democratic strategist, when asked if he thought Bush had a chance to win California in '04. "And now I would have to say, cautiously, probably not. Why? Because the greatest campaigner in the history of California politics was elected governor last year."
Even before the general election, some say California's relative lack of national electoral clout is again being demonstrated in the Super Tuesday primaries.
Kerry, who has won 18 of the 20 Democratic caucuses and primaries so far, was ahead of Edwards by more than 2-1 in California polls leading into the final weekend of the campaign. So, faced with the prospect of having to spend huge amounts on advertising to compete here, Edwards instead has concentrated his pre-Super Tuesday efforts and resources in Ohio, Georgia, New York and smaller states, like Maryland, where polls show he has a better chance to win.
Meanwhile, the primary here has had to compete with another compelling national story out of California: the battle over gay marriage. More than 3,500 same-sex couples have flocked to San Francisco City Hall for marriage licenses.
A prime example came Thursday, when a spirited primary debate between Kerry, Edwards, the Rev. Al Sharpton and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio in Los Angeles was overshadowed by actress Rosie O'Donnell's exchange of vows at San Francisco City Hall.
California is a microcosm of Bush's winter chill. He was tied with an unnamed Democratic opponent in a Public Policy Institute of California poll taken in early January, but trailed by 17 points in a mid-February survey.
Mark Baldassare, the poll's director, said Bush has suffered from the relentless attacks of Kerry, Edwards and other Democratic contenders at the same time that the news about Iraq and the economy was at best mixed.
"People have been hearing largely a one-sided story during the past month and half or so," Baldassare said. "... But I think a number of other factors haven't worked out favorably for President Bush over the course of the last month, including increasing questions about whether or not we ever knew there were weapons of mass destruction and just the kind of day-to-day news from Iraq."
Bush has begun fighting back, labeling Kerry a waffler and attempting to raise the stakes of the election by portraying himself as a president who has made tough choices in dangerous times.
But some wonder if it will be enough to turn around a state that he lost by more than 1 million votes to Al Gore in 2000. That could be especially hard in an election that is shaping up as a race to appeal to the base of each party. Kerry and Edwards are lighting up liberals on traditional Democratic issues such as trade and jobs, and Bush is doing so with conservatives on issues such as a constitutional ban on gay marriage.
The presidential election could again be fought in a swath of industrial states from Minnesota to Pennsylvania, with Florida and a few states in the Northeast, Northwest and Southwest potentially in the mix. California may again be the leader of the Ignored Majority.
"I would say that the majority of states this year are not in play," said Fernando Guerra, director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University. "California is not unique in that. I don't think Texas is in play, either. ... What makes it interesting for California is its size. Why would you give up a state where, if you win, you have 20 percent of what you need to win?"
Bush campaign spokesman Terry Holt said the GOP remains optimistic about Bush's chances here.
"The president has a broad public agenda," Holt said, mentioning tax cuts and immigration reform that would appeal to Californians. And Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie said the GOP has every intention of waging an all-out campaign for California's 55 electoral votes in the fall.
But Gillespie acknowledged that the GOP could again face another "gut check" on whether to go all out for the biggest prize of all in 2004.