People & Politics in LA

October 2003



Absentee Voter Study: Press Release



The Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University conducted a poll of 300 randomly selected absentee voters statewide from October 3 through October 6. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 5.5%. The partisan population of the sample - 42% Democrats and 37% Republicans - was similar to the statewide population of registered voters - 44% Democrats and 35% Republicans. There are an estimated 2.1 million who requested absentee ballots statewide, comparable to a presidential election. Among the most important findings are:

· 52% of absentee voters survey voted to recall Governor Gray Davis compared to 41% who voted against the recall. 7% either could not recall how they voted or declined to answer this survey question.

· Among Democrats who voted by absentee ballot, 22% voted to recall Davis, and 71% voted no on the recall.

· Among Republicans who voted by absentee ballot, 85% voted to recall the Governor, compared to only 7% who voted no on the recall.

· On the second ballot question to replace the Governor if he is recalled, 35% voted for Arnold Schwarzenegger, 25% voted for Cruz Bustamante, and 10% voted for Tom McClintock.

· 7% of surveyed absentee voters did not vote on the second ballot question for a replacement candidate.

· Among Republicans, Schwarzenegger received 64% of the absentee votes compared to only 10% for McClintock and 4% for Bustamante.

· Bustamante carried only 47% of the Democrats who voted by absentee ballot. Slightly more than 10% of Democrats did not vote on the second question. Schwarzenegger and McClintock each received 10% of the Democratic vote on the second question.

· Among the 10% of Democrats who did not vote on the second question, 90% voted no on the recall.

· Absentee voters resoundingly defeated Proposition 54. 51% of the absentee voters surveyed opposed the initiative compared to 23% of absentee voters who voted yes. 17% of the surveyed absentee voters did not remember how they voted.

· Democrats overwhelmingly opposed Prop 54, by a margin of 57% to 15%. Republicans also opposed Prop 54, by a margin of 40% to 31%. The percentage of survey respondents who could not remember how they voted was similar for both parties, 19% for Democrats and 17% for Republicans.

For questions, contact any of the four principal investigators:
Fernando Guerra, Ph.D. 310-338-4565
Mara Marks, Ph.D. 310-338-1794
Matt Streb, Ph.D. 310-338-1741
Matt Barreto 310-489-2955